Market Update: Mortgage Rates Top 7% While San Francisco Prices Hold

Mortgage rates have moved noticeably higher this fall, and buyers and sellers in San Francisco are feeling it. Here is where things stand as of October 23 and what it means for your next move.

Where Rates Stand

Freddie Mac’s latest survey (October 22) put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.32%, down slightly from 7.40% the week before. A year ago it was 6.19%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.68%, compared with 5.44% a year ago. Rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025, after spending most of the summer in the mid-6% range. This week’s dip is welcome, but rates are still more than a full point above last October.

What That Means for a San Francisco Buyer

Take a $2.1 million single-family home, about where the San Francisco median sits, with 20% down. That means a $1.68 million loan. At last October’s 6.19%, principal and interest comes to roughly $10,280 a month. At 7.32%, it is roughly $11,540. That is about $1,260 more per month, or around $15,000 a year, before property taxes and insurance (30-year fixed, principal and interest only).

Prices and Supply Are Telling a Different Story

Higher rates have not cooled San Francisco the way national headlines might suggest. C.A.R. reported that San Francisco County posted one of the largest year-over-year price gains of any county in California in June, up 24.8%. Redfin’s mid-year review found just 1.7 months of supply in the city, with 48% of homes selling within two weeks. Realtor.com’s August report showed San Francisco active inventory down 13% from a year earlier, though it also showed prices there slipping about 5%, a reminder that property type, price point, and condition all matter.

What This Means for Buyers

Build your budget around today’s payment, not last year’s.

Compare lenders. Rate quotes can vary meaningfully from one lender to the next.

Ask about seller credits that fund a rate buydown, which can lower your payment.

Some buyers choose to buy now and revisit a refinance if rates fall. That is a decision to make with your lender, and a future refinance is never guaranteed.

What This Means for Sellers

Tight supply still works in your favor, but higher rates narrow the pool of buyers who can comfortably qualify at higher price points. That makes pricing precision more important, not less. The listings that sit are usually the ones priced above what recent comparable sales support. A credit toward a buyer’s rate buydown can also widen your buyer pool without cutting your list price.

What to Watch

Rates have climbed about 0.6 points since early September, and Freddie Mac publishes new numbers every Thursday. Small weekly moves matter less than the overall picture: your payment, your timeline, and your local comps.

Rates move weekly, but your decisions do not have to be reactive. Colleen McFerrin and John Esplana track San Francisco and Bay Area market data every week and can show you exactly what today’s numbers mean for your budget or your listing price. Reach out and let’s talk through your plan.